Source: Working Futures 2004, table compiled using data from Tables 2.1-11.1

London’s employment growth in health and social care employment between 2002 and 2012 will be the third highest in relative terms, but its total share of employment is forecast to stay the lowest in England. In terms of occupations, employment levels of health and social welfare associate professionals are projected to rise much higher in London than in other parts of the country.

Social services departments in London have the highest vacancy rates in England (nearly 20% compared to 11% nationally), but this figure varies substantially within the local authority areas in London (from 8% to 39%). The highest vacancy rates were reported for occupational therapists (34%), care staff for children’s homes (27%), managers and supervisors in children’s homes (29%) and field social workers (23%). These figures are about twice as high compared to the whole of England, except for occupational therapists. There is also some evidence that a number of teams have vacancy rates between 25 to 40%. In contrast, survey data for the independent sector suggest that vacancy rates in London for comparable occupational groups are much lower than in the statutory sector and that they do not vary dramatically from those nationally. Turnover rates may even be lower in London, except for domiciliary care.

There are fears that the planned expansion of the health care workforce might worsen the situation in social care, particularly in care management and occupational therapy where staff are already in short supply.

Turnover rates, however, are only slightly higher than compared to the whole of England (15% versus 13%). Yet there are successes. A borough in east London has reduced its high vacancy rates for social care workers substantially and for occupational therapists completely by recruiting local ethnic minority people via work-based training programmes or secondments.

Source: Working Futures 2004, Skills in England 2003, Eborall 2003a and Douglas 2002

The south east is forecast to experience the second highest growth rate in the health and social care sector. Caring personal service occupations are expected to contribute substantially to this increase.

Social services departments in the south east have also higher vacancy rates than other parts in England, but the situation is much less severe than in London.

Source: Working Futures 2004

Due to needs-related funding criteria the North East region has the highest share of employment in the health and social care sector in England. It is forecast to maintain this position by 2012, despite below average growth rates in this sector

The health and social care sector is forecast to attract 86% of all job gains in the North East between 1999 and 2010, with 14,300 out of 30,000 new jobs in health and social care expected to be in the care sector. However, there are some indications that there will be a shortfall in staff qualified to occupational standards as required by the national minimum standards.

Vacancy rates in the region are lower than nationally. In contrast, staff turnover rates are slightly higher, but overall replacements seem to be easier to hire as there are fewer job opportunities in other sectors of the local economy than elsewhere. Skills deficiencies of recruits reported by managers mainly related to ICT skills, although this hardly affects job performance, and qualifications of occupational standard, i.e. national minimum standards requirements. In contrast, basic skills gaps played a minor role.

Source: Working Futures 2004 and Gordon et al. 2003

For further regional projections see Data and charts.