Future employment growth rates in the health care sector are expected to slow down over the next 10 years, but these rates are still among the highest across all sectors and above figures for the whole economy.

Over the next 10 years, the health sector has a comparatively high replacement demand ratio and increasing employment levels.  This will result in a total recruitment requirement of almost 50% of current employment for the next 10 years.

Annual job increases of around 1% are forecast for the UK health sector to 2014, translating into some 200,000 additional jobs.  Taking into account the replacement demand for staff expected to leave the health care sector, recruitment levels are forecast to reach around 1 million between 2004 and 2014.

Over the next two decades an expansion of just under 300,000 health care staff may be required.  It is forecast that by 2020 an additional 62,000 doctors, 108,000 nurses, 45,000 professionally qualified therapists and 74,000 health care assistants would be required in the ‘solid progress’ scenario.

The NHS Plan 2000 has paved the way for organisational reforms and an unprecedented workforce expansion.  For more information see organisational reforms and recruitment.  In England, national targets have been set for over 100,000 additional staff (over 2001/2002 baseline figures) by 2008, including:

• 15,000 consultants and GPs
• 35,000 nurses
• 30,000 therapists and scientists
• 27,000 health care assistants

Similarly, national targets apply in Scotland (an additional 600 consultants by 2006, 12,000 extra nurses and midwives by 2007 and 1,500 more allied health professionals by 2007) and in Wales (an increase of 6,000 nurses, 700 consultants and doctors and 2,000 other NHS staff by 2010).

Source: Skills for Health 2006, Working Futures 2006, Skills for Health 2005 and Wanless 2002

For information on organisational reforms and recruitment in the sector see:

Organisational reforms and recruitment